Japan’s battle to encourage {couples} to have more youngsters has been given higher urgency after knowledge confirmed the annual number of births dropped to under 700,000 for the primary time since records started more than a century in the past.
In line with authorities knowledge launched this week, the number of births reached 686,061 in 2024, a decline of 5.7% from the earlier yr and the lowest since statistics had been first stored in 1899. The information excludes infants born to international residents.
The fertility charge – the common number of youngsters a lady has in her lifetime – additionally fell to a record-low of 1.15, down from 1.20 in 2023, the well being ministry stated. That’s properly under the speed of 2.1 wanted to maintain the population secure. The ministry stated 1.6m deaths had been recorded in 2024, up 1.9% from a yr earlier.
The number of births and the fertility charge have fallen for 9 years in a row, though the number of marriages was barely up final yr, two years after it dipped under half a million for the primary time.
The number of marriages – a key issue in influencing start tendencies in a nation the place comparatively few youngsters are born out of wedlock – rose for the primary time in two years to 485,063, up by 10,322 from a yr earlier. However the downward pattern seen because the Seventies stays unchanged.
Japan’s birthrate has been falling because it reached the second child increase in 1973, falling under 1 million in 2016 and under 800,000 in 2022. Final yr’s determine is about one-quarter of the all-time peak of 2.7 million births in 1949.
The newest figures will make uncomfortable studying for officers, as the number of births has fallen into the 680,000 vary 15 years earlier than forecast by the Nationwide Institute of Population and Social Safety Analysis, in response to the Kyodo information company.
If present tendencies persists, Japan’s population of about 124 million is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, when 40% of the population can be 65 or over.
A shrinking and ageing population may have critical implications for the economic system and nationwide safety, as the nation seeks to spice up its navy to counter potential threats from China and North Korea.
The prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who has described Japan’s demographics as a “silent emergency”, lately unveiled measures to spice up the birthrate, together with an growth of youngster allowance and free highschool training, and a assure that {couples} will obtain the equal of 100% of their take-home pay after they take parental depart on the identical time.
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, warned that the falling birthrate, mixed with rising numbers of deaths, threatened Japan’s skill “to operate as a society”, including the nation had reached a “now or by no means” second to deal with its demographic disaster.
However makes an attempt by successive governments to ease the monetary strain on {couples} have had little impact, with statistics exhibiting that individuals proceed to marry later in life, a pattern that outcomes in smaller households.
The federal government has been criticised for specializing in married {couples} reasonably than on youthful, single individuals who have been delay the thought of marriage. Many cite poor employment prospects and job safety, the rising price of dwelling, and a company tradition that makes it tough for feminine workers to turn into working moms.
A 2023 survey by the Nippon Basis discovered that solely 16.5% of individuals aged 17 to 19 believed they’d get married, although a a lot bigger proportion needed to take action.
